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Tuesday, 31 July 2018


CapitalStars Investment Adviser

Gold prices mixed ahead of central bank decisions.
Gold prices traded sideways in a narrow range on Tuesday, with investors in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the outcome of central bank monetary policy meetings. Investors are awaiting a Bank of Japan monetary policy decision on Tuesday. The bank is expected to trim its inflation forecasts and consider changes to its massive stimulus program, reflecting a growing recognition it will take longer than expected to meet its elusive price goal The U.S. central bank has raised benchmark lending rates twice this year and signalled two more increases by the year's end. Higher U.S. rates tend to boost the dollar, making greenback-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies

Copper rose in LME as strike in Chile and weaker dollar.
LME copper rose and closed at $6,245/mt on Monday due to the strike in Chile and a weaker US dollar. Market participants should monitor shorts today after China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slipped for July. We expect LME copper to trade at $6,200-6,250/mt today. 

Nickel fell down in LME as supply increase.
Nickel prices gained low inventories across LME and domestic warehouses, tight supply of nickel pig iron. Profit growth for China’s industrial firms eased in June from the previous month, data showed, as factory production slowed amid the worsening trade U.S. dispute and Beijing’s efforts to cut pollution and debt. Nickel stocks in Shanghai bonded warehouses fell further over the week to 57,500 mt, data showed. This is down 1.7% on the week as active transactions saw Norilsk materials flow into the domestic market when import window was open.

Oil prices drop on oversupply concerns as OPEC output increased in July. 
Oil prices fell on Tuesday, with Brent futures set for their biggest monthly loss in two years, on oversupply concerns after a report showed OPEC's output in July rose to its highest for 2018. A Reuters survey showed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased production in July, hiked production by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 32.64 million bpd, the most this year. The group has pledged to reduce the amount of oil output they are curtailing to offset the loss of Iranian supply as looming sanctions have already started to cut exports from OPEC's third-largest producer. U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to soften his approach to Iran, saying on Monday he would meet with President Hassan Rouhani without any preconditions. United States has indicated that it wants Iranian exports cut to zero under the sanctions it pledged to reintroduce in May and that would go fully into effect in November.
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