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Thursday 31 May 2018

Gold prices were steady in early Asian trade on Friday amid renewed fears of a global trade war.

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Spot gold was nearly unchanged at $1,298.20 per ounce by 0356 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for June delivery were down 0.2 percent at $1,298 per ounce. Spot gold is down slightly this week.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.1 percent at 94.117.
Gold's current price movement reflects the relatively calm attitude of investors, said Mark To, head of research at Hong Kong's Wing Fung Financial Group.
"These uncertainties are to be with us for quite some time, so sooner or later investors will get used to it," To said, adding that he expected gold to trade in the $1,296-$1,305 range.
Fears of a global trade war emerged after the United States on Thursday went ahead with tariffs on aluminium and steel imports from Canada, Mexico and the European Union, ending the two-month exemption it had given earlier. Canada and Mexico retaliated against this decision.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday played down the chances of a quick deal in getting North Korea to abandon its nuclear arms as a delegation from Pyongyang headed to meet him with a letter from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, suggesting a proposed summit may be back on.
Political and economic tensions may support gold prices to a certain extent, but an interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve this month may provide the metal some kind of resistance, To said.
U.S. consumer spending accelerated in April and inflation continued to rise steadily, underpinning the case for a U.S. interest rate hike this month.
Higher interest rates tend to boost the U.S. dollar and push bond yields up, pressuring gold prices by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.52 percent to 847.03 tonnes on Thursday.
In other precious metals, spot silver gained 0.5 percent to $16.42 an ounce, but was down about 0.5 percent this week.
Platinum rose 0.6 percent to $906.60 per ounce and palladium was 0.1 percent higher at $986 an ounce. Both were headed for a second straight weekly gain.

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OPEC oil output fell to a 13-month low in May due to declining Venezuelan production.

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 32.00 million barrels per day in May, the survey found, down 70,000 bpd from April's revised figure. The May total is the lowest since April 2017, according to Reuters surveys.
OPEC is reducing output by about 1.2 million bpd as part of a deal with Russia and other non-OPEC producers to get rid of excess supply. The deal began in January 2017 and, in theory, runs until the end of 2018.
With the supply glut largely cleared and oil topping $80 a barrel this month for the first time since 2014, OPEC and Russia are now shifting policy and discussing pumping more, although analysts expect any boost to be cautious.
"OPEC's bias to err on the side of tightening remains intact," said Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard. "Easing the restrictions just means that its 'line in the sand' moves slightly back."
For now though, adherence by producers in the deal to agreed levels remains strong. Compliance slipped to 163 percent of agreed cuts in May from 166 percent in April, the survey found, meaning they are still cutting far more than agreed.
The biggest decrease in supply came from Nigeria due to unplanned outages. Royal Dutch Shell's Nigerian venture declared force majeure on Bonny Light crude exports, while loadings of another crude, Forcados, are facing delays.
The second-biggest decline came from Venezuela, where the oil industry is starved of funds because of economic crisis. Output dropped to 1.45 million bpd in May, the survey found, a new long-term low.
Production in Libya, which remains unstable due to unrest, edged lower because AGOCO, an eastern Libyan producer, had to curb output as unusually hot weather led to power problems.
Iranian output, expected to decline as the U.S. re-imposition of sanctions discourages companies from buying the country's oil, edged lower in May but there was no evidence yet of a sizeable drop, sources in the survey said.
OPEC's two largest producers, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, both pumped slightly more in May but not enough to offset the declines elsewhere.
Saudi Arabia's output edged up due to more crude being used in domestic power plants, sources in the survey said, but remained below the kingdom's OPEC target.
Iraq, the second-largest, pumped more because of an increase in exports from the south, the outlet for most of the country's crude, following a decline in April.
Output in the country holding the OPEC presidency this year, the United Arab Emirates, was steady in May as it continues to show higher compliance than in 2017, sources close to the matter said. Kuwait also maintained full compliance.
Nigeria and Libya were originally exempt from cutting supply because their output had been curbed by conflict and unrest. For 2018, both told OPEC that output would not exceed 2017 levels.
OPEC has an implied production target for 2018 of 32.73 million bpd, based on cutbacks detailed in late 2016 and taking into account changes of membership since, plus Nigeria and Libya's expectations of 2018 output.
According to the survey, OPEC pumped about 730,000 bpd below this implied target in May, not least because of the decline in Venezuela and a similar involuntary drop in Angola, where the survey found output was flat in May.
The Reuters survey is based on shipping data provided by external sources, Thomson Reuters flows data and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consulting firms.
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Weak rupee, rising gas cost to up urea subsidy deficit: Report

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CapitalSertars Investment Advis

Depreciation of rupee and rising gas costs is likely to increase the urea subsidy shortfall to Rs 9,000 crore this financial year, a report said as per the PTI report. Urea players have been witnessing rising gas costs, which coupled with the depreciation of rupees against the US dollar will result in higher cost of production, rating agency Icra said in its report. The increased cost of production for urea is a pass-through to the government in the form of subsidy and will lead to a rise in the urea subsidy in FY19, it added. "With the recent currency depreciation, domestic fertiliser industry is expected to face headwinds as it is highly import dependent," said K Ravichandran, senior vice-president and group head, corporate ratings, Icra.
He said the goverment's urea subsidy bill for FY19 is expected to reach around Rs 54,000 crore, against budgetary allocation of Rs 45,000 crore, driven by rising gas costs and currency depreciation. However, Ravichandran said, energy efficient urea manufacturers are not expected to witness any significant challenges from currency depreciation as the increased cost of production will be a pass-through to the government in the form of subsidy, while increased interest costs would be offset by the higher energy savings.
"Nonetheless, for production beyond reassessed capacity (RAC), which is eligible for import parity pricing, the government's intervention may be imperative to safeguard the profitability given the rising gas costs and relatively subdued global urea prices," he added. Phosphatic and potassic (P&K) players have also witnessed rising raw material prices in recent quarters, particularly for phosphoric acid, according to Icra.
As a result, P&K players had undertaken a retail price increase in February 2018, while the NBS subsidy rates for phosphates was also increased for FY19 which, according to the agency will enable the industry to conserve their contribution margins for the upcoming kharif season despite rising raw material prices. "The demand for P&K fertilisers is expected to remain healthy in the upcoming kharif season unless the expectations related to a normal monsoon do not fructify leading to weaker demand and thus, inability of the companies to pass on the rising raw material costs to the farmers leading to decline in profitability of the companies," Ravichandran added.
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Wednesday 30 May 2018

Exporters` GST refund: FinMin says only Rs 14,000 cr pending.

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CapitalStars Investment Adviser

The finance ministry today said GST refunds worth Rs 14,000-crore to exporters are pending with the government and "solutions" are being put in place to fast-track clearances. Refuting claims by the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) which had yesterday claimed that refund clearance has slowed down and pegged pending refund at over Rs 20,000 crore, the ministry in a statement said Rs 8,000 crore was sanctioned during May. "Refund claims to the tune of Rs 14,000 crore (Rs 7,000 crore on the IGST side and Rs 7,000 crore on account of ITC) are pending with the government as on date, as against the figure of Rs 20,000 crore projected by FIEO in the press reports," the ministry said. So far, the government has sanctioned more than Rs 30,000 crore as GST Refund.
This includes an amount of Rs 16,000 crore of IGST and Rs 14,000 crore of ITC (input tax credit). The figures of ITC include sanction by both the central and state governments, the ministry said. "In order to liquidate the pendency, the government is starting a second Special drive Refund Fortnight from May 31, 2018 to June 14, 2018. "This time the Special Drive Refund Fortnight would facilitate all types of refund claims in which customs, central and state GST officers will strive to clear all GST refund applications received on or before April 30, 2018.
This will include refunds of IGST paid on exports, refunds of unutilised ITC and all other GST refunds submitted in FORM GST RFD-01 A," the ministry said. In the first phase of refund fortnight observed between March 15-30, the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) had cleared refunds totalling Rs 17,616 crore. This comprised Rs 9,604 crore of Integrated GST refunds, Rs 5,510 crore ITC refund by the Centre and Rs 2,502 crore ITC refund by states. The CBIC is implementing a solution whereby the refunds held in GSTN, in cases where the exporters have mistakenly declared their export supplies as domestic supplies, would now be transmitted to Customs EDI system.
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CapitalStars Investment Adviser

"On receipt of the records from GSTN, the customs system would automatically process the refunds for sanction, if no other errors are committed by exporters," the ministry said. Besides, it has also clarified on matters related to refund claims by an input service distributor, composition dealer, exports of services and supplies made to SEZ.
The circular also clarifies issues related to requirement of LUT in cases of export of exempted or non-GST goods and scope of restriction imposed under Rule 96(10). "All claimants may note the refund application in FORM GST RFD-01A will not be processed unless a copy of the application, along with all supporting documents, is submitted to the jurisdictional tax office. Mere online submission is not sufficient," it added. It asked all exporters with pending GST refund to approach their jurisdictional tax authority for disposal of any of their refund claims submitted on or before April 30. "In case the jurisdiction (i.e. Centre or State) has not been defined for a particular claimant, he/she can approach either of the jurisdictional tax authorities," it said.
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Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, as the dollar eased from 6-1/2-month highs hit earlier this week.

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CapitalStars Investment Adviser

Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,302.50 per ounce by 0344 GMT. It was headed for a monthly decline of about 1 percent, its biggest since February.
U.S. gold futures for June delivery were 0.1 percent higher at $1,303.20 per ounce.
"Gold is largely being influenced by how the dollar is moving and the dollar move overnight is a clear representation of why gold prices have risen this morning," said OCBC analyst Barnabas Gan.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.1 percent to 94.027.
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CapitalStars Investment Adviser

A weaker dollar makes bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies.
"Prices are still very dependent on how risk aversion is playing up and the global news surrounding the U.S.-Sino trade tensions as well as the possibility of a North Korea summit, that uncertainty is a big driver for gold prices," Gan added.
China said on Wednesday it was ready to fight back if Washington was looking for a trade war, days ahead of a planned visit by U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
Meanwhile, U.S. and North Korean officials met in New York late on Wednesday in the first of two days of talks about the future of Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program and a possible summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jung Un.
"Some weaker than expected economic data in the U.S. also helped boost investor demand (for gold)," ANZ said in a note.
U.S. economic growth slowed slightly more than initially thought in the first quarter as consumer spending rose at its weakest pace in nearly five years.
However, tensions over Italy cooled as the country's two main anti-establishment parties renewed efforts to form a government, reducing the prospect of a general election, which had stoked fears that such a vote will effectively be a referendum on the country's euro membership.
In other precious metals, spot silver was steady at $16.51 an ounce, set to rise over 1 percent this month.
Platinum fell 0.2 percent to $904.94 an ounce but was headed for a small monthly gain.
Palladium was steady at $985.40 an ounce and was headed for its biggest monthly gain since December, climbing over 2 percent.
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Oil prices dip on unexpected growth in U.S. crude stocks.

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CapitalStars Investment Adviser

Oil prices dropped on Thursday, weighed down by a surprise rise in U.S. crude inventories and by expectations that OPEC and other producers could increase output at a meeting in June.
Brent crude  was down 20 cents at $77.30 per barrel at 0041 GMT, after settling the last session up 2.8 percent.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude  was down 20 cents at $68.01 a barrel. In the previous session, it settled up $1.48, or 2.2 percent, at $68.21 per barrel.
U.S. crude inventories rose by 1 million barrels in the week to May 25 to 434.9 million barrels, according to data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute, although analysts had expected a decrease of 525,000 barrels.
Data from the Energy Information Administration is due at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT) on Thursday, a day later than usual due to a public holiday on Monday.
A possible production increase by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC members including Russia has been in focus, especially after Saudi Arabia, de facto leader of the oil cartel, and Russia have discussed boosting output by some 1 million barrels per day.
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CapitalStars Investment Adviser

OPEC and some non-OPEC members have committed to curb their output by about 1.8 million barrels per day until the end of 2018, and they will meet in Vienna on June 22 whether or not their commitment should remain unchanged.
"With the OPEC meeting still another three weeks away, oil prices are likely to remain sensitive to headlines," ANZ bank said in a note.
A Gulf source familiar with the thinking of Saudi Arabia said OPEC and its allies aim to continue their agreement to cut oil output by the end of this year but are ready to make gradual adjustments to offset any supply shortfall.
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